Noticed Bitcoin bounced back to $75.75K this morning after some volatility over the weekend. The move came on the back of solid spot ETF inflows hitting $615M between Thursday and Friday, which is a decent reversal from the previous two days. MicroStrategy also grabbed headlines announcing they picked up nearly 14K BTC last week through their yield product, so institutional money still seems interested despite the chop.

But here's what's been nagging me - even with all this buying pressure, Bitcoin futures are still trading at only a 2% annualized premium. That's pretty weak. Normally you'd want to see 4-8% premium during healthy uptrends, so the derivatives market isn't exactly screaming bullish right now. Plus Bitcoin's still down about 11% year-to-date, so we haven't really shaken off the January selloff.

The bigger issue I'm tracking is what the bitcoin miners are doing. Marathon Holdings dumped 15K BTC in the last month, Riot cut positions by 2.3K, and Cango sold another 2K. When major bitcoin miner operations are heading for the exits, it's hard to make a convincing case that the bear market is actually over. These guys are usually pretty savvy about timing.

Also can't ignore that Bitcoin moves in lockstep with the S&P 500 these days. Oil prices bouncing around and geopolitical noise are moving us more than anything else. Until we see bitcoin miners stabilize their holdings and regulatory clarity actually moves forward with stuff like the CLARITY Act, I'm not ready to call this a real bottom.