The key word for the global markets on Monday is “Hesitation”: - The Nasdaq index ended its “13 consecutive gains,” with its psychological significance greater than its technical significance; - Gold and U.S. Treasuries have fully recouped their early-session downside drops; - The dollar and crude oil have given back all their gains. Compared with last Friday’s close, major markets are almost unchanged.

The market is now waiting for news from the U.S.-Iran negotiations, entering a “suffocating period under maximum pressure.” First, the deadline is already close to coming due (originally set to expire Tuesday evening Eastern Time, but Trump said it would expire Wednesday evening). Trump said the ceasefire will end on Wednesday night (Eastern Time), making any further extension of the ceasefire “highly unlikely.” If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, he expects the war to break out again. Money is entering a “waiting mode.” Bulls do not dare to move in heavily before the ceasefire ends, because once talks fall apart on Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and the explosive force of oil prices would be destructive.

Second, the second round of negotiations is still unclear. The latest development is that the U.S. delegation (Vance, Kushner, etc.) will fly to Pakistan, but signals coming from Iran are that it may be “possibly absent” or “not accept unilateral ultimatums.” However, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran will also send a delegation, though it is not yet clear who will lead it. The Wall Street Journal also cited people familiar with the matter saying Iran has told regional mediators it will send a negotiating team. Earlier on Monday, Iranian state media hinted that Iranian officials might be absent from the talks, citing “excessive demands” put forward by Washington.

Third, Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty. Trump’s contradictory remarks about what may happen after the ceasefire deadline has passed have created strategic ambiguity that the U.S. can use in negotiations (and even whether to extend the ceasefire alone has given three different versions of answers). This uncertainty could lead to misunderstandings with the Iranian negotiation delegation. But for the market, Trump’s strategy being opaque is extremely clever—firmly controlling market expectations. Replacing “oil strategy reserve” with “statements” to wipe out the market’s “certainty pricing.” Now, the market is waiting for that “Yes or No” conclusion—don’t use the “logic behind the gains from the past two weeks” to judge the next two days.