Why does the market crash every time there’s a major conference?

Core takeaway: It’s not “a meeting = a guaranteed drop.” Instead, it’s the combined effect of “expectations priced in early, realization upon landing (good news turned into reality), uncertainty risk-hedging, and the rules of capital games” that makes you subjectively magnify your memory of “selling off whenever there’s a meeting.” Because crypto currency futures/contracts use high leverage, volatility is directly amplified into “crashes.” This is the underlying logic shared by both A-shares and the crypto world.

 

1. Most important: expectations get digested in advance, so good news turns into bad news upon release (see-through death)

The market always trades expectations, not facts:

1. 1-2 weeks before the meeting: funds move in early, betting that the meeting will bring big liquidity, strong stimulus, and major policy measures—pushing prices up in advance—so the “meeting benefits” get priced directly into the market;
2. When the meeting is held / the policy is released: expectations are fulfilled. There’s no major upside beyond expectations. In fact, policies may be more steady than what the market fantasized, so funds immediately take profits, liquidate, and bolt—leading to a sell-off;
3. Your intuitive feeling: it rises before the meeting and falls during/after the meeting. You only remember “it drops when there’s a meeting,” ignoring the rise before the meeting, which creates a rigid impression of “it must drop whenever there’s a meeting.”

Crypto-specific version: Before the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC and regulatory meetings in various countries, the market bets on rate cuts and relaxed regulation, pulling prices up early. If the meeting outcome is hawkish and offers no upside beyond expectations, it immediately triggers stampede liquidations and a crash. The typical example is that in 2025, eight Fed meetings led to BTC pullbacks in seven of them.

2. The second key: maximum uncertainty during meetings, so capital collectively takes shelter

During major meetings, policy, regulation, and the macro direction are completely unclear. The top priority for all capital is survival and controlling risk:

- Institutions / big players directly reduce positions, go to cash, and take profits and exit—without engaging in any uncertainty-driven speculation;
- Retail investors panic and sell along with the crowd, creating “sell-pressure resonance,” directly hammering down the market;
- Especially in the crypto market: during regulatory meetings and industry conferences, the market fears the most about getting regulatory negative news, so risk-off sentiment spikes instantly. Leveraged funds get liquidated and forced-sell, amplifying the sell-off and widening the drop.

3. Third logic: during meetings, the capital game rules naturally favor the bears

1. Policy expectations miss the mark: the market fantasizes about “strong stimulus” and “big liquidity,” but the actual meeting only talks about “steady progress,” with no specific easing magnitude. The good news gets invalidated, and bears immediately take the initiative to smash the market;
2. Big funds reposition: after the meeting tone is set, capital withdraws from the previously traded hype themes and switches to a new main line. Old themes collectively underperform and get sold down;
3. Leverage amplification effect: when you trade leveraged contract positions, once the trend turns, stop-loss orders trigger in sequence. The decline accelerates, and even a small pullback can feel like a “crash,” making the effect feel even more intense.

4. Break the misconception: data proves it’s not “100% guaranteed to fall”

- In A-shares over the past 10 years’ two sessions: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 6 times and fell 4 times. The probability of an up move is 60%. Up and down are basically split 50/50—only the downside has a deeper drop and a longer-lasting memory;
- In the crypto market: only meetings that produce a surge before the meeting and in which expectations are excessively overdrawn will show “crash upon landing.” Neutral or slightly positive meetings, on the other hand, tend to keep rising.

5. Trading execution rules for you (tailored for leveraged contracts)

1. 3 days before the meeting: don’t open new heavy long positions; take profits early, reduce leverage, and avoid the “expectation priced in → sell-off upon realization” effect;
2. During the meeting: only do small-position range-trading/oscillation trades. Don’t chase rallies, and don’t bottom-fish against the trend. Strictly follow stop-loss rules and don’t bet on policy surprises exceeding expectations;
3. 1-2 days after the meeting: wait until the direction is clear before opening positions; don’t do emotional trading after “the shoe drops”;
4. Core principle: a meeting is not the cause of the decline—overdrawn expectations are. As long as there isn’t a surge before the meeting, a major drop during the meeting is unlikely.
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