These days, I’ve seen people draw a “causal chain” linking stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC funds all together, and it’s making me a bit distracted... Correlation doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve found the button. When stablecoins increase, it could be for preparing to buy, or it could be for risk hedging and just staying there, or even just because cross-chain / swapping channels are more convenient; ETF inflows and outflows are the same, their structure and rhythm don’t completely match the on-chain set.

It took me a while to realize that comparing RWA and US Treasury yields with on-chain yield products is also a delayed reaction: on the surface, they’re all “returns,” but fundamentally, there are differences in credit, maturity, and settlement methods. Anyway, I now prefer to focus on structure: which path the funds come in from, which layer they stay on, how they retreat under pressure, and not rush to draw conclusions from the diagram. Just like that for now.