Glassnode: Intensified Market Tug-of-War as Spot CVD Turns Negative, Increased Selling Pressure, but ETF Inflows Provide Support

On April 21, Glassnode released a report indicating that while buying interest remains strong, providing some buffer for prices, market sentiment is turning cautious. Data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading has shifted from positive to negative, indicating rising selling pressure and the emergence of bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, centralized exchanges are active, maintaining high market participation. In the futures market, an increase in open interest suggests a rising risk appetite, but the funding rates for long positions have significantly decreased, and the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined, indicating that traders are more willing to pay a premium to short, with reduced buying enthusiasm and increasing bearish sentiment. In the options market, a decrease in demand for downside protection may ease bearish sentiment, but a contraction in open interest could imply profit-taking, affecting future volatility. The narrowing of volatility spreads suggests a shift in market sentiment from risk pricing to neutrality. The ETF sector stands out, with the MVRV ratio and net inflows of U.S. spot ETFs rising, indicating enhanced profitability and investor interest, along with a significant increase in trading activity, reflecting growing enthusiasm for participating in Bitcoin through regulated channels, leading to cautiously optimistic market sentiment. In terms of liquidity, a decrease in hot money share and a narrowing of realized market cap changes indicate dominance by long-term holders and alleviated net outflows. The supply ratio between short-term and long-term holders remains stable, with long-term holders showing solid confidence.