Just noticed something interesting about the bitcoin halving cycle. We're already past the halfway point, and the block reward has dropped to 3.125 BTC with inflation under 1% now. But here's what caught my eye - Bitcoin's only up about 15% since the 2024 halving, which is actually pretty weak compared to what we saw in previous cycles. The market's definitely maturing, less dramatic swings.

Price action has been wild though. Hit $126K earlier this year, then dumped all the way to $60K, and now we're bouncing back to around $75.86K. The thing traders are watching right now is that $75,500 level - if we break above that, we could see about $200M in short liquidations which would probably push price higher. That's the kind of catalyst that could move things.

Looks like this bitcoin halving cycle is expected to wrap up around 2028. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, we get this reset. The supply's approaching that hard cap of 21 million, so the scarcity narrative is still there, just playing out slower than before.