Recently, I started reviewing what is happening in the private credit market, and honestly, the numbers are quite concerning. We are talking about $2 trillion in exposure, and what's interesting is that right now we see major players like Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Oaktree Capital reaching their rescue limits almost simultaneously.

What catches my attention is that this exposes a fundamental problem: the mismatch between where the money comes from and where it goes. It’s not just a matter of numbers on a spreadsheet, but of how the business model of many software companies is being impacted by artificial intelligence. This creates real pressure in the market.

But there’s something else that worries me and that probably most people aren’t seeing clearly. The increase in the proportion of PIK (payment in kind or deferred interest) is becoming a silent risk. Basically, many are showing paper gains while hiding real problems underneath. It’s as if the market is disguising reality with pretty numbers.

The most important thing to understand is that these $2 trillion are not isolated. The risk is starting to spread across borders, and that means what happens in the U.S. private credit market can have global effects. It’s a reminder that in financial markets, everything is connected.