Just noticed palm oil futures popped about 1% on Monday, sitting near 4,600 ringgit per ton after bouncing back from earlier weakness. The palm oil market got some decent tailwinds - ringgit weakening plus Chicago soybean oil staying strong helped lift sentiment.

Oil prices rallied too after US-Iran talks fell through, which always gets traders in a better mood and more willing to take on risk. But here's what's really interesting: Malaysia's inventory numbers just dropped for the third straight month and hit a seven-month low. That's solid fundamentals right there.

India's been buying less though - their March imports fell 19% month-on-month to a three-month low. But the thinking is they'll need to restock soon as seasonal demand picks up, so that could support the palm oil market going forward.

The catch is export estimates looking weaker. Shipping data showed April shipments in the first ten days dropped 30-39% compared to March. So gains are getting capped by softer outflows, which makes sense. Overall the palm oil market is getting some fundamental support from inventory tightness, but export weakness is keeping a lid on things.