I woke up today and saw gold soaring during the early hours. It surpassed $4,800 per ounce and reached highs of $4,846.35. Do you know what drove all this? Trump suddenly announced that the war with Iran, basically, is over. That’s no small thing.

The timing was very specific. On the night of April 14th, Trump gave an interview and said this: the war is over, and talks with Iran could happen in two days in Pakistan. I mean, he didn’t announce a military victory, but he clearly signaled a diplomatic “exit.” Vance, Kushner, and special envoy Whitkopf are handling the negotiations. If this results in something concrete, we might be witnessing the start of a real geopolitical relief.

But look at what happened with the numbers too. The March PPI came in at 0.5% month-over-month, well below the expected 1.1%. That’s important because it shows inflationary pressure is moderate, despite the war pushing energy prices higher. The market started repricing expectations for the Federal Reserve — now they only expect one interest rate cut this year, not two. Historically, that favors gold.

The dollar fell quickly with this news. Lower interest rates + less geopolitical risk = more attractive gold. Simple as that.

Now, what catches my attention is the behavior of the big players. Union Bancaire Privée, that Swiss bank that sold heavily when prices dropped, has started buying gold again. They are rebuilding positions and maintain a forecast of $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year. It’s not a conservative forecast, but it makes sense considering the fundamentals.

Central banks also haven’t stopped buying. In February, net purchases were 27 tons, maintaining the 2025 average. Poland bought 20 tons in one month, Kazakhstan increased by 8 tons. Uzbekistan now has 88% of its reserves in gold. That’s no coincidence — it’s a deliberate hedge strategy against sovereign risks and global monetary system instability.

The point is: the war is over in the narrative, inflation is under control, and institutional demand for gold remains strong. We have a favorable window if negotiations in Pakistan go as expected. Of course, any diplomatic setback could turn the game around quickly, but for now, the scenario is set for gold to continue its upward trend in the medium and long term.