I just reviewed a very interesting analysis about the current dynamics of the gold market, and there are some points worth discussing.

What catches my attention the most is that central banks continue to buy gold consistently, but the market might be completely misinterpreting what is actually happening. Many believe this is simply part of a move toward de-dollarization, but the reality is more nuanced.

First, the way they are buying has changed significantly. More and more central banks are using non-standard channels and prefer to store gold within their own territories rather than in international vaults. This reflects something deeper: gold is reaffirming itself as the ultimate sovereign safe asset.

Now, regarding the issue of de-dollarization. Although there is a global trend toward diversification, we cannot reduce all of this to that. The main motivation remains the same as always: hedging against crises and diversifying reserves. Some banks like Turkey and Russia have recently sold gold, but these are tactical moves under fiscal pressure, not a strategic shift.

From a price perspective, what’s interesting is that central bank gold purchases act as a long-term floor, but they are not the decisive factor. Real interest rates remain much more important. These banks buy during dips, which gives them more of a stabilizing role than a driving one.

And here’s the crucial point: emerging market central banks still hold a very small proportion of gold in their reserves compared to developed countries. This suggests that this cycle of buying is just beginning.

My view is that there are interesting medium- and long-term opportunities, but caution is needed in the short term. When you see the correlation between gold and risk assets weaken, that could be a signal to enter during corrections. The move toward de-dollarization will continue to be part of the narrative, but it’s not the whole story.