Caught something interesting from the World Lithium Conference - SQM's lithium chief just laid out what he thinks the lithium spot price could look like in 2026, and it's a pretty wide range we're talking about here.

Carlos Diaz, VP of lithium at SQM, basically said don't expect the wild swings we've seen before. He's looking at lithium carbonate settling somewhere between $15 to $18 per kilo next year. Could spike to $20 occasionally, might dip to $12, but the days of seeing $7-8 lows or $50 highs are probably behind us. That's actually a pretty grounded take given how volatile this market has been.

What's driving this outlook? A few things converging at once. First, supply is tightening up - China's shutting down a major mine, Zimbabwe slapped an export ban, and carbonate stocks are running thin. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is pushing more people toward EVs as an oil independence play. Then you've got the AI data center boom creating unexpected demand for battery energy storage systems. All of this is pulling lithium prices higher from their recent lows.

SQM itself is the world's second-largest lithium supplier, and they're betting demand could recover even faster than people think. The company ships about 70% of its lithium to China and they're still seeing solid demand from their main buyers there.

The whole lithium spot price picture seems to be stabilizing into a more reasonable range after those crazy swings. Interesting time to be watching this sector - the fundamentals look pretty solid with supply constraints and growing demand from both EVs and energy storage. If you're tracking battery metals, this is worth keeping on your radar.