I just reviewed the FOMC minutes, and there’s something that many people are not clearly seeing. The market is completely rewriting its narrative about interest rates, and this is much more complex than it appears at first glance.

What happened is interesting: the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran reduced extreme risk, but that doesn’t mean the Fed is going to start cutting rates. In fact, the FOMC minutes directly reject that idea. The problem is that we’re now in an in-between zone where the Federal Reserve can’t loosen its policy with confidence, but it also can’t keep tightening.

The FOMC data show three factors that keep everything locked: first, the delayed pass-through of tariffs continues to put pressure on inflation. Second, energy prices continue to feed underlying inflation. And third, there is a real risk that long-term inflation expectations will reaffirm at higher levels. This means that even if the conflict calms down, inflationary pressure doesn’t disappear.

Most importantly, the market has already changed its focus. We’ve moved from asking when rates will be lowered to asking how long they will stay elevated. The FOMC minutes confirm that policy will remain restrictive for longer than many expected.

In crypto, Bitcoin is reflecting all of this. BTC’s recent bullish move isn’t because of new massive capital inflows, but rather repositioning after risk was released. The price is now at $76.28K, but if you check liquidation maps, you can see an interesting structure: there’s significant resistance in the upper zones, and real consolidation is between 70.100-69.800.

The structure is symmetrical: liquidity drawing longs from above, support below. As long as the macro picture remains unresolved, Bitcoin continues to be more a reflection of risk appetite than an independent driver. The crypto market is stuck in the same limbo as the traditional market: waiting for clarity from the Fed, but with no clear signals of a policy change.