The battle for oral weight loss drugs has begun! Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing for approximately $5 billion market in their first year.

Ask AI · How can Eli Lilly’s oral weight loss drug leverage manufacturing advantages to challenge the market landscape?

On the day after Eli Lilly’s oral weight loss drug Orforglipron (brand name: Foundayo) received FDA approval in the United States, First Financial Reporter learned that Lilly has already initiated seven Phase III clinical trials of Orforglipron targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes, with over ten thousand patients enrolled worldwide, including six global multicenter studies involving Chinese patients.

The ATTAIN series clinical studies that supported the FDA approval also included Chinese patients. Professor Mu Yiming, chief of the Endocrinology Department at the PLA General Hospital and principal investigator of the Attain-1 study in China, stated: “In overweight and obese patients in China, Orforglipron has demonstrated good weight loss effects and multiple cardiovascular and metabolic benefits, with clinically meaningful improvements in waist circumference, non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and other risk factors.”

Market analysts from major brokerages have also rapidly followed with predictions for this newly launched oral weight loss drug. Several leading brokerages expect Lilly’s oral weight loss drug to achieve sales of $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion by 2026. J.P. Morgan analysts forecast that sales could soar to $6 billion by 2027. Citigroup analysts even predict that the peak sales of this drug could exceed $40 billion.

The launch of Lilly’s new drug will undoubtedly reshape the market landscape for oral weight loss medications and may significantly narrow the market share of Novo Nordisk’s dominant oral semaglutide weight loss drug. David Risinger, an analyst at Leerink Partners, stated in a report: “This will be a fierce battle between Novo Nordisk and Lilly for dominance in GLP-1 drugs.”

UBS estimates that Lilly’s drug and Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide will generate combined revenues of approximately $5 billion in 2026. In the long term, analysts believe that oral medications will expand the coverage of obesity treatment. Morningstar estimates that by 2034, oral weight loss drugs could account for about one-third of the global weight loss market, which is valued at $180 billion.

An early clinical study shows that the average weight loss achieved with oral semaglutide exceeds that of Lilly’s oral weight loss drug — Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide helped people lose about 16.6% of their body weight after 64 weeks of continuous use; Lilly’s oral weight loss drug resulted in an average weight loss of 12.4% after 72 weeks. However, Lilly’s small-molecule drug manufacturing process is simpler and has fewer administration restrictions, giving it a competitive edge.

According to Evaluate Pharma, a healthcare business intelligence company, by 2030, Lilly’s oral weight loss drug is expected to further demonstrate its advantages, with global sales reaching approximately $21 billion, compared to only $4 billion for oral semaglutide.

Although Lilly’s oral weight loss drug has not yet been approved in China, Dehulan, Vice President of Lilly Group and General Manager of China, expressed hope to accelerate the approval process and bring the drug to Chinese patients as soon as possible.

(This article is from First Financial)