Recently, I've been looking at the "tags, clustering, and fund flows" of address profiling again... To put it simply, they are useful, but don't take them too seriously. Is an address like a person? Often, it's more like a shared drawer used by a bunch of people: exchange hot wallets, market-making scripts, temporary consolidations. When clustering is done, it's easy to lump together people with different motives into one "whale." Then you chase the fund flows, only to find you're racing against your own imagination.

These days, when cross-chain bridges get hacked or oracles report errors, everyone suddenly learns to "wait for confirmation"—which is basically admitting that on-chain information also has noise and needs redundancy. I now focus more on making backups: at least two sources verify the same conclusion, and extend the time dimension a bit; better to be slow than overconfident near an explosion point. Anyway, I only get excited about certainty that can be leveraged—everything else... I’ll just wait and see.