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There is something interesting happening on Wall Street right now. While the geopolitical conflict keeps markets on edge, investment bankers are rushing ahead with a flood of initial public offerings. We’re talking about more than $15 billion that could be raised in the coming weeks through IPOs, all while closely monitoring how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz develops.
The timing is fascinating. Since the ceasefire was reached six days ago, more than ten companies have filed for IPOs or started their roadshows. Five of them plan to set prices this week. If everything goes as expected, they could raise around $4.6 billion—which would be the best week since Medline’s operation a few months ago, which raised $7.2 billion.
Take Madison Air Solutions as an example. Its $2.23 billion IPO is representative of this trend. Nearly a quarter of the shares are already reserved by investors, and the founder plans to invest $100 million at the IPO price. Demand has exceeded supply several times over. Then there’s what Bill Ackman is doing, who officially launched marketing for his closed-end fund. Convenience stores, REITs, biotech—all want to go public now.
But here’s the interesting part: bankers admit that in this volatile geopolitical context, there is no such thing as ‘safe everything.’ According to executives from Barclays and the Royal Bank of Canada, the market has not yet fully priced in the potential inflation increase if the conflict prolongs. That means decisions about when to enter or exit the market become critical.
What I see is that companies seeking to IPO at this moment tend to focus on less uncertain sectors: mainly healthcare and industry. There is a huge backlog of tech companies waiting for the second half of the year, but for now, everyone is focusing on what they see as safer.
The real challenge is that the performance of new listings has been inconsistent. The weighted average of IPOs so far this year barely outperforms the S&P 500 index with 4.6%, but half of the top ten IPOs have seen their market value drop more than 25%. This creates a dangerous polarization in the market—when some assets fall 30% while others rise 30%, that’s not a sign of a healthy market.
Bankers are using all available tools to strengthen these processes: seeking anchor investors, setting realistic valuations, offering fewer shares in the initial phase. For companies planning their IPOs in April and May, this is particularly crucial. The question everyone is asking is whether this window of opportunity will last long enough or if geopolitical volatility will end up closing it. For now, it seems Wall Street is betting on yes.