I followed Tuesday's news, and there was really an interesting shift in sentiment. It seems that the United States and Iran are considering a new round of negotiations, and the market reacted immediately: stocks up, oil down, dollar losing appeal as a safe haven.

European stocks seized this rebound wave. The Stoxx 600 rose by 0.5%, the German DAX even by 1% thanks to industrial and automotive stocks. London was more cautious with a 0.1% increase, although precious metals miners performed well. The real movement, however, was in the United States: Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4%, signaling the tenth consecutive day of gains — the longest streak since 2021. Asia also participated: Nikkei +2.4%, South Korea’s Kospi +2.7%, Shanghai +0.95%.

According to sources, the two parties could return to the negotiating table in Islamabad as early as this week. Trump said Iran wants an agreement, but of course, it won’t budge on nuclear issues. Charu Chanana of Saxo made an observation that struck me: the market is betting on hope, not on concrete results. The failed talks last weekend didn’t close the door to diplomacy, and that’s enough to temporarily support equities.

For oil, Brent fell 0.6% to $98.81 per barrel, but analysts say the real tightness between supply and demand will continue to support prices anyway. The IEA predicts that this situation will bring global oil demand growth to zero for the first time since the 2020 pandemic.

Regarding news and markets, investors are also watching the earnings season — JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup released results on Tuesday. LVMH dropped 3.2% due to declining sales. Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs said the U.S. stock market presents attractive valuations, and if oil continues to fall, there’s room for growth on Wall Street.

An important data point: Bank of America’s survey among fund managers shows the most pessimistic sentiment since last June. Investors expect oil to fall to around $84 by year-end, down from nearly $98 currently.

On the inflation front, Tuesday’s March PPI was expected to show the strongest growth in four years due to rising energy prices. Economists forecasted +1.1% month-over-month.

The dollar has been declining for seven consecutive days, returning to pre-war levels. Two-year Treasury yields fell by 1.7 basis points, while 10-year yields stand at 4.279%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose 1.8%, and analysts say that if it surpasses $75,000 with high volumes, we could see a further strong rally. Currently, the price is at $76,240. Gold gained 0.9%, nearing $4,800.

The situation remains volatile — it will depend heavily on how negotiations develop and on upcoming economic data. The market is betting on hope, as Chanana said, but this hope might be faster than reality. I’ll be watching how the news from the ongoing IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington unfold.