I just reviewed an interesting analysis from CITIC Securities about why gold is entering a window of opportunity for investment right now. What catches my attention the most is how they explain the relationship between energy shocks and the behavior of the precious metal.

Look, the current context is quite particular. Trump has been suggesting that the next Fed chair could work from the White House, which implies more flexible monetary policies than the market expects. This weakens expectations of a hawkish Fed and opens the door to stagflation risks in the United States. After the correction we saw in March, gold now presents really interesting safety margins for allocation.

What I find key is understanding the historical cycle. When there are strong energy shocks, like the one we’re seeing with the Iranian crisis these days, oil prices spike, but gold doesn’t always follow immediately. In fact, since late February, when tensions escalated, WTI rose from $67 to nearly $97 per barrel, but COMEX gold fell from $5,278 to $4,747 per ounce. It seems contradictory, right?

But here’s the interesting part: once the market absorbs the sustained energy increase and begins to prioritize factors like structural inflation, weakening credit, and stagflation risks, gold regains its role as an anti-inflationary refuge. Historical data is eloquent. During the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1978-1980, gold prices multiplied: they increased by 173% and 168%, respectively. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 29% and only rose 12%, but gold mining stocks like Newmont fell 27% during the first crisis and rose 61% during the second. That is, when gold enters an upward trend, precious metals selectors tend to outperform the overall market.

In more recent periods that we could call quasi-stagflation, such as between 2007-2008 and 2022-2023, precious metals indices gained 4.37% and 22.28%, respectively, surpassing averages.

The US fiscal situation also doesn’t help. The Treasury has already spent $425 billion on interest alone in the first months of 2026, with an average rate of 3.32%. If the Fed maintains high rates to fight inflation, pressure on the deficit intensifies. And with midterm elections on the horizon, there are political incentives to pressure the new Fed chair to lower rates.

In summary, we have expensive energy, stagflation risk, fiscal pressures, and probably a more dovish Fed than many expected. For me, that paints a scenario where gold has quite a bit of room to run, and the current safety margin is really attractive for those looking to position themselves.