I have noticed a situation that is becoming increasingly tense in the Baltic Sea. Ukrainian operations against Russian ports are intensifying, and Moscow is responding with drastic defensive measures.

This week, the governor of the Leningrad region issued a public appeal: they are seeking personnel with military experience and veterans to protect critical infrastructure. The reason is quite clear when you look at the numbers. The ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga handle about 40% of Russia's crude oil exports by sea, and the region also hosts strategic refining facilities.

Ukrainian attacks are causing real operational problems. Novatek's Ust-Luga gas processing plant remains shut down after late March attacks, and Surgut Oil & Gas Company's Kirishi refinery is still inactive. Drone attacks have already caused significant disruptions to port operations.

What is striking is the response: three-year contracts for civilians joining defense teams. This is not a temporary measure. It suggests that Moscow expects this situation to persist. Ukrainian operations in the Baltic Sea are demonstrating an effectiveness that goes beyond immediate physical damage, creating structural instability that forces the adversary to completely reorganize security priorities.

This conflict continues to reshape the global energy dynamic in ways few anticipated at the start.