I just saw an interesting analysis from Barclays about what’s coming in Thailand. It turns out that the Thai Central Bank is quite determined to keep the interest rate where it is throughout 2026.

According to the report from Barclays economists, the monetary policy rate will stay at 1.00% for the entire year. The governor made it clear recently: they will maintain the current rate for as long as possible and are avoiding raising it. It’s a very defensive stance, honestly.

What I find relevant is why they are taking this position. Barclays points out that the central bank is more concerned about how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Thai economic growth than about inflationary pressures. Basically, they prioritize maintaining economic activity over fighting inflation.

Additionally, the Central Bank has already made its strategy clear: they will ignore supply shocks and inflation increases that may result from them. So, the interest rate will remain stable even if there are specific inflation pressures. It’s a bet on economic stability above other indicators.