When the funding rate hits an extreme, the group starts shouting "Counterparty is leaving," but I actually prefer to pause first. To be honest, at such times, it's not about betting on the direction; it's about whether you can withstand the oscillating fluctuations back and forth. My habit is to first assess the maximum drawdown I can tolerate; if it exceeds that, I’d rather hide and wait until the funding rate returns to a normal range. If I do take the counterparty position, I only use a small position size, leaving room to correct mistakes.

Recently, large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges are seen as "smart money," which looks exciting, but often it's just a combination of probability events amplified by emotions—don't treat it as a sign of fate. The outcome boils down to two possibilities: you guessed right, or you got educated by the volatility. Anyway, I care more about surviving long-term; earning a little less is okay.