Reflections on Public Blockchains in 2026:

Regarding public chains’ ramblings in 2026:

1. The strategy of “controlling inflation + high-interest savings + DeFi trio + founder’s meme + we have our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC selling to liquid funds” is no longer feasible.

2. This is not only a problem Monad and MegaETH need to face, but also Rise, Fogo, and even N1. The main chains, depending on the situation, Sei and Polygon still seem to be struggling, while most have already given up.

3. The loyalty of projects incubated on day 1 of public chains remains questionable, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most deploying on new chains are eyeing the public chain foundation’s funds. Once they secure funding through endorsements and attract the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chain to support valuation, 2) to switch to other chains and compete.

4. As a result, some founders no longer call themselves part of xx ecosystem, but say xx chain is our “GTM Partner.”

5. So, if the ecosystem project is too weak, it can’t be supported; if it’s too strong, it risks backstabbing the godfather like Lü Bu.

6. The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended, and the valuation model based on MEV income needs revision (here @LeePima sensei)). Today’s public chains are more about bearing a certain controllability rather than potential, operating fintech within a controllable economic system.

7. Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, with top-down dev shops and CVCs. The main role of the treasury will be M&A, engaging in aggressive vertical integration rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there will no longer be kingmakers like Solana (cc. @mablejiang).

8. In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource advantages and regional contexts.

9. The final question is: how should we model the estimation of FDV and follow the hype? And since skill sets are entirely geared toward coin-selling, circle-raising, and economic models that extract fees, the old era’s ticket might no longer fit the new era’s ship.