There's no signal in the subway elevator, which is actually a relief; I can only keep an eye on a few on-chain metrics. Recently, I've been looking at those "pools" in blockchain games, and honestly, it's just two things: whether the output is constantly increasing, and whether the consumption is keeping up. The output is pouring out daily, and the first thing players do when they come in is switch to the main coin/stablecoin and leave. The liquidity in the pool is being drained more and more, and eventually everyone starts racing to get out faster... Inflation isn't about how good the announcements sound; it's about whether transfers are continuously flowing outward.

Outside, people are still explaining crypto price swings with ETF fund flows and U.S. stock risk appetite, but I’m too lazy to argue. On the blockchain game side, it’s more realistic: if no one is willing to take the bait, no matter how beautiful the model is, it can’t hold up. Anyway, I’m just holding a small position now, watching the data, taking screenshots, and waiting for it to expose itself.