Bitunix Analyst: Diverging Policy Signals and Energy Route Conflicts Create Mismatched Phase of Liquidity Contraction but Expectations of Easing Persist

On April 20, the core market contradiction shifted from a singular geopolitical conflict to a dual-track pull between “policy path uncertainty + war spillover disruptions.” On one hand, the Federal Reserve maintains a highly conservative stance on the interest rate path, with Waller and Daly explicitly tying decisions to inflation and conflict outcomes, indicating that policy cannot provide a clear easing anchor. On the other hand, the White House aims to reshape market expectations for future interest rate declines through a framework of “balance sheet contraction + interest rate cuts as a hedge,” creating a typical disconnection between policy foresight and current realities. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a brief opening back to a blockade, with significant military friction and records of no shipping passage. The U.S. release of strategic reserves and Iraq’s signals of supply restoration essentially hedge against supply shocks but do not eliminate shipping risk premiums. Negotiation signals are also confused: the U.S. pushes for talks while Iran denies participation, coinciding with escalating military conflicts, turning “ceasefire” from a stabilizing expectation into a short-term tactical tool. As a result, cross-market funds show clear mismatched flows: energy and transportation risks elevate inflation stickiness, making it difficult for the Fed to pivot in the short term, while the political landscape simultaneously strengthens easing expectations, leading to a divergence between interest rate path expectations and the actual liquidity environment. In this structure, risk assets are not simply under pressure but enter a phase of “liquidity contraction + expectation support” with volatile repricing, making the market more event-driven. Returning to the cryptocurrency market, BTC structurally maintains a range-bound oscillation, with a clear high-intensity liquidation and liquidity accumulation zone forming around 78,000, while a support band continues to appear in the 72,000–73,000 range, favoring repeated trading within the range. In the context of unresolved macro uncertainties and diverging policy paths, BTC essentially remains an outcome indicator of risk appetite: if energy conflicts escalate further and inflation expectations rise, the upper liquidity will turn into a trap for speculative excess; conversely, if negotiations make substantial progress and risk premiums decrease, funds may have the conditions to retest the high liquidity zone.