The current tense between Iran and the U.S. is more like mutual escalation under the premise of "controlling intensity." Over the weekend, from the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz to its re-tightening, the U.S. seized ships and threatened to strike infrastructure, while Iran delayed confirming negotiations. These series of actions seem aggressive, but they share a commonality: they remain near the critical threshold, without truly crossing the line.

On Iran's side, it's not just a single "pressure to promote talks." On one hand, by affecting Strait navigation and oil transportation, they aim to influence oil prices and global risk premiums, passing external pressure onto the U.S. and allies; on the other hand, deeper issues lie within internal structural problems. The diplomatic system favors resuming negotiations, while the IRGC hardliners need external actions to maintain their presence and decision-making power, so many "escalations" also carry obvious domestic political attributes.
The U.S. logic is similar. It must maintain a tough stance externally to avoid being perceived as conceding under pressure, especially in the current political environment where such an image costs a lot. Therefore, countermeasures are inevitable, but these actions are also kept within limited scope, not pointing toward full-scale military escalation.
So, the current situation is not simply an escalation of conflict but a rhythm game around negotiations: both exert pressure continuously and avoid losing control. The repeated "opening—closing—restrictions" of the Strait essentially creates tension expectations while managing risk spillover, akin to artificially maintaining an environment of high uncertainty.
For the market, this state is more complex than unilateral good or bad news. The recent rebound was more about short-term risk expectation relief and emotional recovery, but now, as the ceasefire window approaches, negotiation uncertainties increase, and geopolitical frictions recur, the market is pulled back into a range lacking clear direction.
This stage's features are very obvious: strong news-driven, amplified volatility, but weak persistence, prone to repeated fluctuations. Instead of judging direction with trend thinking, it's better to see it as event-driven oscillation, more suitable for waiting for confirmation, doing retracements, or participating around the volatility itself, rather than betting on a unilateral move in advance. $BTC