Breaking! U.S. and Iran clash in the Gulf of Oman, commercial ships seized, drones retaliate, negotiations deadlocked

Just in the past 24 hours, U.S.-Iran tensions have sharply escalated:
1. Direct maritime conflict: A large cargo ship flying the Iranian flag, the "TUSKA" (departed from Zhuhai, China, carrying 80k tons of industrial and daily goods), attempted to break through the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman. After six hours of unsuccessful persuasion, U.S. forces opened fire and seized the vessel. Iran's Revolutionary Guard promptly responded with drone attacks on multiple U.S. ships. It is said that an Iranian commercial vessel successfully broke through the blockade and entered Iranian waters.
2. Military reserves remain substantial: Iran is reportedly still holding about 70% of pre-war missile stockpiles, 60% of launchers, and 40% of attack drones. Some weapons buried under U.S. bombing can be recovered to about 70% of pre-war levels after cleanup, enough to control the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Negotiations are completely stalled: The U.S. claims the delegation has arrived in Pakistan for talks, but Iran publicly refuses to participate, demanding the maritime blockade be lifted first. Trump is vocally tough, but U.S. media reports he is "full of fear" inside—both sides are pulling and tugging, and the U.S. currently appears passive.
4. Oil prices and market reactions: WTI crude jumped 5% at Monday's open, trading at $91.35 per barrel; major U.S. stock index futures opened lower, with Nasdaq futures down 0.9%. Oil stocks generally rose before the market opened.
5. Why is it so hard to fully start a war?
Some analysts compare this to the Russia-Ukraine war: drones turn the battlefield into an "easy to defend, hard to attack" zone. Small units + drones + artillery can send large-scale forces to their deaths. If the U.S. deploys ground troops to fight in Iran’s rugged mountains, it would be a hellish scenario; and without quick victory, the U.S. domestic public wouldn't accept heavy casualties.
But Iran also faces difficulties: maritime trade is cut off, the Revolutionary Guard’s interests are tied to oil, and without money, they can't operate effectively.
Neither side wants to fight, but both have to negotiate—yet now, even negotiations are impossible.
Maritime clashes have occurred, no one is at the negotiation table, oil prices soar, and the risk of war clearly rises, but a full-scale conflict still has hurdles. The next few days are critical—whether Iran will be forced to come to the table or if the conflict will escalate further. $BTC ‌ $XBRUSD ‌#美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡