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Recently, there have been many screenshots on the blockchain saying, "This transfer is just too coincidental."
After I see them, I usually hold back and avoid jumping to conspiracy theories...
Many so-called coincidences are actually just paths you missed: routing aggregators splitting transactions, cross-chain bridges relaying, CEX hot wallets consolidating, and even MEV trapping you in the middle, making it look like a certain address is "watching you."
By unfolding the path layer by layer, it often turns out not to be so mysterious.
If I hadn't taken a shortcut and clicked on a "similar airdrop" link at the time, I probably wouldn't have learned that during periods of high phishing activity, the best disguise isn't the contract, but your emotions.
Now that hardware wallets are out of stock, I realize I need to review...
Anyway, when I see a "coincidental transfer," I first think of it as a kitchen smell:
Identify which pot or pipe is leaking, then decide whether to change the ingredients (positions) or adjust the heat (mindset).