BTC short-term rally of 0.67%: Whales adjusting positions combined with increased on-chain funds driving the price higher

Between April 20, 2026, 14:15 and 14:30 (UTC), the BTC price experienced a short-term fluctuation, with a return of +0.67%, trading within a range of 75,038.5 to 75,750.0 USDT, and an amplitude of 0.95%. The price rapidly moved upward within 15 minutes, market volatility significantly increased, and trading activity was notably higher than before.

The main drivers of this fluctuation stem from two aspects. First, on-chain data shows that the net inflow of whales (addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more) into exchanges increased by approximately 2.1% between 14:00 and 15:00, which is usually seen as a potential sell pressure signal, but the market’s buying support was sufficient, absorbing the selling pressure and pushing the price higher. Second, spot trading volume increased by about 8.4% month-over-month, with derivatives (perpetual contracts) trading volume expanding in tandem, and open interest ending a previous week’s continuous decline with a slight rebound, indicating new funds entering or existing funds increasing leverage, forming a driving force for the price increase.

Additionally, ETF fund flows remained neutral before and after this window, with no large-scale subscriptions or redemptions observed, suggesting that this fluctuation was mainly driven by on-exchange trading funds. In terms of supply and demand structure, post-halving, BTC’s daily output decreased to about 450 coins, while institutional demand remained above 1,200 coins daily, indicating a long-term supply-demand gap; the exchange BTC balance continued to decline to historic lows, tightening circulating supply and making short-term fluctuations more susceptible to capital influence. The put/call ratio in the options market is about 0.48, indicating a generally bullish bias consistent with the direction of the price movement. Multiple factors resonated, amplifying this short-term volatility.

Regarding risks, the current leverage ratio has been steadily decreasing since March, with no signs of extreme high leverage accumulation, and this short-term fluctuation did not trigger chain reactions of forced liquidations. However, macro liquidity remains a key medium- to long-term pressure source. The US dollar index has been strengthening since September 2025, putting pressure on global risk assets. If the DXY continues to rise, BTC prices may face downward correction. Investors should monitor on-chain fund flows, macro news, and key support and resistance levels, remaining alert to short-term volatility risks.