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The US just sent Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner back to Islamabad for round two of Iran talks. : NY Post
Iran’s response: “We have no plans to show up.”
In between, the US Navy seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman for trying to break the Hormuz blockade. Iran called it an act of aggression.
Now we have:
- US negotiation team already in the air
- Iran refusing to confirm attendance
- Ceasefire expiring today (April 21)
- Blockade still fully active
This is no longer a negotiation. It’s a high-stakes game of chicken.
Three possible outcomes today:
1. Iran shows up → deal framework, ceasefire extended → oil drops hard toward $80
2. Iran stays away → ceasefire expires, blockade tightens → oil spikes toward $100+
3. Iran shows up but walks out → worst of both worlds
The Touska seizure just showed Iran the blockade has real teeth.
Watch Islamabad closely. This is the most important 24 hours since the war began.