Several early signs of economic trouble:

Inverted government bond yields: This is the "early heartbeat" of the financial world. Short-term bond yields higher than long-term bonds indicate that people have no confidence in the future and just want to seize the immediate gains. History has proven that this indicator is more reliable than any analyst~
Insider cashing out and retreating: When billion-dollar CEOs and executives start massively reducing their holdings, and large investors' funds disappear like a tide, don’t believe their words about "improving lives." It’s clear they sense a storm is coming and are pulling back first.
Commercial real estate collapse: A 17.6% month-on-month plunge in new home sales in January is just the appetizer. When office building vacancy rates reach horror-movie levels, and banks’ collateral turns back into "bricks," the domino effect of credit tightening begins to topple.
Faked or inflated labor data: Looks great on employment reports, but it’s mostly a "paper prosperity" supported by part-time jobs and government subsidies. Once you peel back that layer of deception, the real unemployment pressure has long made ordinary people breathless.
Consumption downgrade and contraction: Coffee drops from premium to instant, and discounted items in supermarkets become necessities. When everyone is afraid to spend, the engine of the economy stalls~
#经济危机 #Macroeconomic analysis #避险资产 #Trading logic #大萧条前兆 #2026