$BTC The trend is as I mentioned last night, it pierced 63700 and then came back (my prediction was 63900). The current question is how high can the rally go? This is probably the biggest disagreement in the community right now, or rather, there are quite a few who are bearish. Although I’m not a hardcore bull either, and I don’t even have strong long or short sentiments at the moment, just making money.

It’s undeniable that 68000 is currently a high-altitude position, but don’t view this kind of political asset with simple inertia thinking. At least I believe that Yellow Hair doesn’t want the US financial markets to crash during his strike on Iran; if that were to happen, he wouldn’t be able to escape responsibility. Moreover, I actually think that once this round of war enters its final stage, there might be a downward revision of the crash, because the cost-effectiveness of this war isn’t high, and it’s causing ongoing pressure on the domestic economy, with the stock market crash used as a means to achieve rate cuts. This idea might sound like a fantasy, but from a political perspective, I don’t think it’s exaggerated.
Looking at the weekly chart, three consecutive bullish days created a W double bottom, and there’s still room to go higher, as long as it’s not blindly optimistic. The question is, where is the high point? The three lines of KDJ have already exceeded or are around the 50 midline, and the fast line J is approaching overbought territory. In this market, there are only two possible moves: either it turns down sharply, but at least for now, there’s no divergence; or it continues to push upward significantly, then pulls back with a long shadow, returning to the previous level after the rally. In this case, the fast line J would turn downward, but the candlestick would be at a higher position, thus digesting the overbought condition in this way. I lean toward this scenario.
In summary, it’s too early to call for a drop to 65,000 now. Bitcoin does have a habit of filling gaps, but not at this moment.
However, it’s undeniable that buying at this position still carries high risk.