I've been closely monitoring the Iran-U.S. situation lately because it directly impacts oil prices and, consequently, the risk appetite in the entire crypto market.

Let's review the background: In early April, both sides reached a two-week temporary ceasefire, which was supposed to expire this Wednesday. Now, the situation has entered a critical juncture. Trump’s side has announced that the negotiation team will go to Pakistan to start the second round of talks, but Iran has not yet officially confirmed participation. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has detained an Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran directly accusing this of violating the ceasefire agreement. Trump has even publicly stated that if Iran does not accept certain conditions, they will strike its civilian infrastructure. Under these circumstances, the strait has been semi-closed multiple times, and global oil tankers are beginning to be stranded again.

I see three possible scenarios moving forward. The most optimistic is successful negotiations, with both sides willing to cut losses. The U.S. doesn’t want to be stuck in the Middle East long-term, and Iran’s economy has already been severely damaged, so both want to find a way out. Once the strait reopens, tensions will quickly subside. The second is a short-term stalemate with minor friction, where the strait remains semi-open, both sides exchange verbal volleys but avoid full escalation, possibly dragging into next week. The worst case is Iran refusing to negotiate, Trump actually following through on his threats, and conflict reigniting.

What does this mean for the crypto space? In the short term, it’s mostly bearish. Geopolitical conflicts usually push oil prices higher, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $75k, and every time there’s tense news, it dips slightly. The total crypto market cap also fluctuates with oil prices.

However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, this could actually be a potential bullish signal. Historical experience shows that once a ceasefire is reached or the strait reopens, oil prices tend to drop sharply, risk appetite quickly recovers, and Bitcoin often surges 4-5% in a single day, with total market cap soaring by $70 billion. Bitcoin has repeatedly proven its resilience amid uncertainty.

If these negotiations proceed smoothly, Bitcoin could likely return to the $75k–$80k range, with altcoins rallying even more strongly. So, in the short term, it’s wise to manage positions carefully and not be too heavy. The key is to watch whether Iran officially confirms participation—if they do and there’s real progress, that’s the immediate rebound window.

My feeling is that both sides are eager to find a way out, and the positive news is already on the horizon. As long as position management is sound, opportunities are hidden within these fluctuations.