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Bitcoin Cycle 2024 is weaker than previous halvings, but the market is maturing more
Alex Thorn from Galaxy says that the Bitcoin cycle after the April 2024 halving is performing significantly worse than the cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The previous cycles saw increases of roughly 9,294%, 2,950%, and 761%, respectively, while the peak of the current cycle at $125,000 is only about 97% higher than the halving price. Price volatility has also dropped sharply, with the 30-day Volatility Index currently at just 1.75%, far lower than the 9.64% recorded in 2020.
One part of the reason for this difference is that Bitcoin set an all-time high above $70,000 before the halving in March 2024, driven by the approval of the ETF Bitcoin giao ngay in Mỹ. This makes comparing cycle performance using the usual formulas less accurate.
On the positive side, drawdowns have also been milder—only a little over 50% from the peak, compared with 80% to 90% in past cycles. VanEck CEO expects prices to gradually recover in 2026.