My biggest feeling from watching the market lately: as long as interest rates don’t come down, that little bit of risk appetite in the market is like a punctured tire—leaking air. People talk about long-termism, but in practice they shrink their positions first. Plainly put, when the cost of capital is high, everyone cares more about “whether they can run at any moment,” so the more liquid assets are more resilient. Once nobody’s there to take the small coins, they just snap through in one go.

And then with on-chain big transfers, or the hot/cold wallets of exchanges moving, people start interpreting it as “smart money is coming in / leaving”… I, for my part, just use it as a sentiment thermometer. If you really want to follow it, first ask yourself where your exit path is: is the order book thick, is the unlock coming soon, and is market making actually propping/supporting the market? Don’t treat a single transfer like a decree.

I’ll cross-check the unlock calendar for the few assets I’m watching, and in the meantime keep an eye on the order-book depth for the major trading pairs. That’s it for now.