Cocoa just had a solid rally on Friday, jumping over 3.7% on the NY side and 6.25% in London—dollar weakness sparked some short covering after prices had gotten pretty beaten down. But here's what's interesting: even with the bounce, the broader picture for cocoa looks pretty rough right now. Supplies are piling up everywhere. ICE inventories hit a 5.25-month high this week, and both Ghana and Ivory Coast—which produce over half the world's cocoa—are cutting official farm prices by 30-35%. That's a pretty drastic move, which tells you something about the supply pressure. On the demand side, it's weak. Barry Callebaut, the world's biggest bulk chocolate maker, reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume last quarter because chocolate prices are just too high for consumers right now. European cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-over-year in Q4, the worst for a fourth quarter in 12 years. Asian grindings down 4.8%, North America basically flat. Even with favorable West African harvests and higher Nigerian exports, the fundamental story remains bearish. Rabobank is forecasting a 250,000 MT global surplus for 2025/26. This looks like a market where the bounce might be temporary unless demand starts picking up. Worth watching how chocolate makers respond to these lower raw material costs—could be a catalyst if they eventually pass savings to consumers and drive volume back up.