Just noticed coffee prices are actually bouncing today after getting hammered lately. Arabica's up a bit and robusta jumped nearly 2% - mostly because the Brazilian real is strengthening against the dollar, which is making Brazilian coffee exports less attractive right now. When their currency gets stronger, farmers hold back on selling, which creates some short covering in the coffee market.

But here's the thing - the underlying supply situation is still pretty bearish. Back in February, Brazil's crop agency said their 2026 production would hit a record 66.2 million bags, up 17% year-over-year. That's massive. Meanwhile, Vietnam's been flooding the market with robusta exports too - they shipped nearly 200K tons in January alone, up 38% from a year ago. So even with today's bounce, the coffee market is basically dealing with a global supply glut.

Inventories have been recovering too, which isn't helping prices. Arabica stocks bounced back to 461K bags in early January after hitting lows, and robusta inventories are also climbing. Colombia's production is down (they're the second-biggest arabica producer), which provides some support, but it's not enough to offset what's happening in Brazil and Vietnam. The USDA's forecasting world coffee production will hit a record 178.8 million bags next season, so unless something changes with demand, the coffee market might struggle to find a bottom.

Today's move feels more like technical buying than a fundamental shift. The real's strength is temporary relief, but the supply picture is still underwater for prices.