Recently, people have been fixating on "large on-chain transfers" and "exchanges' hot and cold wallet movements" to interpret smart money. I actually want to pour cold water on that: what you see on the chain isn't necessarily "right now" on the chain. The nodes and RPCs you use are sometimes queuing, sometimes lagging behind in synchronization, and the indexers may also be caching or restructuring without keeping up. As a result, the same transaction can show different times in different places, and delays of minutes or even longer are not surprising.

Not to mention encountering rare issues like congestion or rollbacks. You might think you've seen the truth, but you're only seeing the perspective of a particular service provider. In short, the blockchain is public, but your access points to the chain are not "fair and real-time." I no longer bother explaining; I accept randomness: draw fewer conclusions, leave more room for interpretation, and don't get yourself caught in a chain of liquidations just because you saw an "abnormal movement" at first glance. Just stay alive.