The long and short position range game for Bitcoin has not stopped, HYPE faces a critical support test of Wave V | Special analysis invitation

This week, the market is searching for direction amid volatility, with opportunities and risks coexisting. The HYPE daily wave Ⅴ structure faces a critical validation point; whether the support at $40.17 will hold or fail will determine the subsequent trend; BTC is also hovering between the continuation of the D wave rebound and resistance zones, with the bulls and bears still engaged in a tug-of-war within the $73,500–$79,000 range.

Following the trend and strictly adhering to discipline are the keys to steady progress in complex market conditions.

Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:

• Analysis of HYPE’s current trend structure. (See detailed explanation in Part One)

• Market forecast and short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week. (See detailed explanation in Part Two)

• Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis for BTC. (See detailed explanation in Part Three)

• Market forecast and mid- to short-term trading strategies for BTC this week. (See detailed explanation in Part Four)

Market validation of last week’s trading strategies and core viewpoints:

• Short-term trading results for HYPE: Last week, HYPE completed a short-term long position ( with 1x leverage ), achieving a total profit of approximately 6.80%. (See Table One)

• Market validation of HYPE’s trend forecast: In previous articles, we pointed out that the rebound starting from the April 2 low of $34.44 constitutes a potential daily wave Ⅴ upward structure. The current market trend confirms our earlier view. Last week, the rebound peaked at $45.75, successfully breaking the March 18 wave III high of $43.78, and setting a new high for this upward trend.

• Validation of BTC’s medium-term trading results: Bitcoin followed the established mid-term strategy last week, holding a short position at $89,000 ( with 1x leverage ). As of last week’s close (around $73,800), profit was approximately 17.08%, with a maximum profit of about 32.58% during the period.

• Market validation of BTC’s trend forecast: In last week’s article, we indicated that the market would maintain a wide-range sideways consolidation. The current trend confirms our previous forecast.

1. HYPE: Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE_4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in (Figure 1), HYPE reached a new high of $45.76 on April 16, marking a rebound from the January 21 low of $20.46, and broke through the previous high of $43.78 on March 18 (wave III high). Therefore, the rally from the April 2 low of $34.44 can be temporarily viewed as a daily wave Ⅴ upward structure, which is currently in progress.

2. As shown in (Figure 1), this daily wave Ⅴ can be further subdivided in the 4-hour timeframe into four segments: an upward structure composed of 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32.

3. Currently, the market is in the 31-32 correction phase.

   • In the HYPE 4-hour structure, our self-developed momentum quantification model detects that two momentum signals have both moved below zero, indicating that this correction phase may be prolonged.

   • The potential correction endpoint (point 32) is close to the previous support level of $40.17 (point 30).

2. HYPE forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week

1. HYPE market forecast for this week:

As shown in (Figure 1), pay attention to whether point 32 breaks below point 30 (i.e., $40.17):

• If it holds above, expect sideways consolidation between $40.17 and $45.76.

• If it breaks below this support and the subsequent rebound fails to surpass $45.76 (point 31), it forms a classic technical pattern of “correction breaking previous low but rebound not making new highs.” This suggests that the daily wave Ⅴ upward structure from the April 2 low of $34.44 may have likely ended at $45.76.

2. Short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week:

• Based on the overall upward trend forecast, follow the principle of “trend-following, buy on dips.”

• Use the signals from our self-built quantitative models, with 30-minute/60-minute trading cycles, employing 30% position size to capture entry opportunities.

• Entry strategy: HYPE is facing a correction at the start of the week. If the price dips to the key support near $40.17 and shows signs of stabilization above support, combined with buy signals from the two major models at the bottom, consider entering long positions with strict stop-loss discipline.

3. Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis for BTC

1. BTC daily wave classification: (Based on the market since the October 6, 2025 high)

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), since the rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000, Bitcoin reached a new high of $78,333 on April 17, and by April 19, it had been in the market for about 73 trading days. Both time and space significantly exceed our previous forecast of a “C wave correction within wave C-2” (for example, its rebound duration far surpasses the 54 days of wave B). Therefore, based on wave theory principles, the original framework may need adjustment. We prefer to redefine this rally from $60,000 as a larger “D wave rebound,” which aligns better with the current market reality of time being exchanged for space and an extended rebound cycle.

The specific medium-term correction wave classification can be optimized as follows:

• Wave A correction (downward drive): from the October 6, 2025 high of $126,200 to the November 21, 2025 low of $80,600, lasting about 46 days, with a maximum decline of approximately 36%. This wave establishes the medium-term correction pattern.

• Wave B rebound (complex correction): from the November 21, 2025 low of $80,600 to the January 14, 2026 high of $97,924, lasting about 54 days, with a maximum rise of about 21.5%. This is a correction of Wave A’s decline.

• Wave C correction (main downtrend): from the January 14, 2026 high of $97,924, with a rapid decline to the $60,000 low on February 6, 2026, lasting about 22 days, with a maximum decline of about 38.7%. This wave completes the main correction space.

• Wave D rebound (ongoing/possibly incomplete): from the February 6, 2026 low of $60,000 to April 19, it has lasted about 73 days, with a maximum rise of approximately 30.6% (from $60,000 to $78,333). This rebound is characterized by a long duration, complex structure, and is currently facing critical time windows and resistance zones (such as $79,000–$80,600). If Wave D is confirmed, after its rebound ends, an “E wave” correction may follow.

2. Deep analysis of BTC’s trend structure

Bitcoin _ 4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 3

• Based on the market evolution since the March 30 low of $65,000.

• As shown in (Figure 3), BTC has been oscillating upward since the March 30 low. The structure from point 18 to point 24 consists of six segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24.

• The chart indicates that from point 18 to point 23, a clear 5-wave rebound structure has been completed, and the current wave is in the 23-24 segment. According to our self-developed price spread trading model, recent signals have issued early warnings of a top (green and white dots), indicating that technical indicators are in a serious overbought state, and short-term market correction is needed.

4. BTC forecast and trading strategies for this week

1. BTC market forecast for this week:

• Core view:

Currently consolidating within the $73,500–$79,000 range, watch for bulls and bears fighting near the upper and lower boundaries. If a rebound breaks above the upper boundary, expect a sideways rebound with limited space; if it breaks below the lower boundary, the price may further decline toward the key support near $69,500.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $79,000–$80,600 (near the November 2025 low)

• Second resistance zone: $83,500–$84,500 (area of previous heavy trading and open interest)

3. Key support levels:

• First support: around $73,500 ( previous key support (

• Second support: around $69,500 ) previous key support (

• Third support: $65,000–$66,000 zone ) near the lower boundary of the consolidation range (

4. Trading strategies for this week ) excluding unexpected news impacts (: ) 04.20–04.26 (

① Mid-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart: ) Position monitoring model (

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Figure 4

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 4), currently, the price is oscillating near the bulls and bears ribbon. According to our strategy rules, we hold a 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If this week’s rebound successfully stabilizes above the bulls and bears ribbon, we will close all mid-term positions.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels, with 30-minute/60-minute trading cycles.

③ Based on our forecast of a medium-term bearish trend, adhere to the principle of “trend-following shorting.” To dynamically respond to market evolution and in conjunction with signals from our proprietary trading models, we plan two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Rebound encounters resistance, short on rallies.

• Entry: When the price rebounds to the $76,500–$79,000 zone and triggers resistance signals, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $80,600.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

• Plan B: Breakdown short position following trend.

• Entry: When the price continues to decline and effectively breaks below $73,500 support, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $74,500.

• Exit: When the price falls to support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

5. HYPE: Trading review

1. Short-term trading review: (see Table One)

We strictly followed the trading plan, using signals from our proprietary spread trading and momentum quantification models, completing one short-term (long) operation last week with a total profit of 6.80%.

2. Summary of HYPE’s short-term trading details: ) leverage *1x (

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Table One

3. Short-term trading review: (see Figure 5)

• Entry: Based on the trend judgment of wave Ⅴ upward; the spread trading model issued early bottom warning signals (green and white dots in the chart); momentum model’s two momentum lines moved above zero, signaling a resonance upward. We entered a 30% long position at $41.59.

• Exit: When the price approached $45 and encountered resistance, and the spread trading model triggered strong top warning signals (green and white dots), we closed all positions around $44.42.

• Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 6.80%.

HYPE_60-minute candlestick chart: ) Momentum quantification + spread trading models (

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Figure 5 (short-term trading illustration)

6. Special reminders:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all analysis and trading strategies should be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs, and do not constitute investment advice or operational guidance. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.