Live cattle futures are getting hit pretty hard today, down anywhere from 80 cents to a buck sixty. The main reason traders are spooked is the cattle on feed report dropping this afternoon, and the market's already pricing in some weakness ahead of it. Cash trade has been dead quiet this week too, with just a handful of bids around $245 floating around. The Fed Cattle Exchange auction on Friday was rough - no actual sales on the 1,394 head offered, and bids were only at $245-246 live and $380.50 dressed. Feeder cattle are taking it even worse, down $2.50 to $3 at midday. What's got traders nervous is what the cattle on feed data might show. Everyone's expecting January placements to be down 3.5% year-over-year and marketings dropping 12.9%. February on-feed inventory is estimated down 1.6% compared to last year. The export numbers from last week weren't great either - only 14,694 MT of beef sold in the week ending February 12, which was a 5-week low. Boxed beef prices did bounce back a bit Friday morning though. Choice boxes jumped $1.50 to $366.67 and Select was up $1.26 to $361.05, with that choice to select spread widening to $5.62. Slaughter numbers Thursday came in at 112,000 head, which pushed the weekly total to 427,000. That's 27,000 head above the previous week but still 14,584 below the same week last year. Right now Feb 26 live cattle are sitting at $246.70 down 80 cents, April contracts are at $241.825 down $1.60, and June is at $237.375 down $1.50. For feeder cattle, March is at $367.475 down $2.80, April at $364.575 down over $3, and May at $361 down $2.575. The cattle on feed report will be the key thing to watch - depending on what those numbers show, we could see some sharp moves either direction.