So I called the Fed being way more aggressive on rate cuts in 2025, and it actually happened. Most people expected just one 25-basis-point cut at the start of the year. I went on record saying the Fed would cut by a full percentage point. We ended up getting 75 basis points across three cuts—not exactly what I predicted, but the direction was right and way more aggressive than consensus expected.

Now we're four months into 2026, and I'm making some equally bold calls about where interest rates are heading this year. The market is already pricing in a pretty conservative interest rate forecast for 2026, but I think we're about to see some real movement.

Here's what I'm watching: The Fed is probably going to cut rates four times this year, not the two cuts most people are betting on. Right now, the market is only giving this about an 11% probability. But when you look at job market pressure and the economic uncertainty floating around, I think four cuts is way more likely than people realize.

Second, the 10-year Treasury yield is going to drop significantly. It's sitting around 4.19% right now, which is actually higher than it was in mid-2024 when the Fed funds rate was way higher—that's a weird dynamic. I'm predicting we'll see that 10-year yield fall below 3.5% by year-end. We haven't seen that since early 2023.

Third, mortgage rates are finally going to get some real relief. Most forecasters think we're stuck around 6.2% to 6.4% for most of 2026. I'm calling for the 30-year mortgage rate to drop to 5.5% by the end of the year. That's a meaningful shift from where we are now.

Look, I don't have a crystal ball, but the conditions we're seeing—slowing inflation, job market softening, Fed leadership transition—all point to a significantly lower-rate environment than what most experts are pricing in. My interest rate forecast for 2026 is basically the opposite of the consensus: expect more cuts, expect bigger moves in long-term rates, and expect mortgage relief that catches a lot of people off guard.