Cocoa futures just popped today - NY contracts up almost 1% and London up 2.6%. Noticed something interesting: Ivory Coast farmers have been shipping less cocoa to ports this season, down about 4.7% compared to last year. That's actually supporting prices right now, triggering some short covering in the market.

But here's the thing - the bigger picture is still bearish. Global supplies are actually pretty abundant, and demand keeps disappointing. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume last quarter, and European grinding data showed an 8.3% decline. Chocolate makers are struggling because consumers won't pay these prices.

Inventories at US ports have been climbing too, which is keeping downward pressure on the market. That said, Ivory Coast has favorable growing conditions going into their main harvest, and the pod counts are actually tracking above the five-year average. Nigeria's production is tightening though - their exports dropped 7% year-over-year.

So you've got competing signals here. Ivory Coast supply concerns giving prices a temporary lift, but global oversupply and weak demand are the real headwinds. Watching to see if this bounce holds or if we test those 2+ year lows again soon.