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Just noticed something that's been bugging me about the market lately. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio just hit 32, and honestly, that's wild when you look at the history. Over time, the stock market has averaged around 16 on this metric since 1870. We're literally double that right now.
What's crazy is this is only the fourth time in recorded history that P/E has crossed above 30. All four times happened in the last 25 years - dot-com bubble, 2008, the 2020 flash crash, and now. You'd think that's a red flag, but here's the thing: over time, the stock market has had structural reasons for higher valuations lately. Better productivity, fatter profit margins, AI and tech disruption - that stuff actually justifies some premium.
Still, even Buffett's sitting on record cash. Over time, the stock market has shown you can't really time these things, but when the smartest money starts hoarding cash, it's worth paying attention. Markets are definitely expensive by historical standards right now.