Looks like someone is using the stablecoin supply curve to say, “The ETF has entered the market—the bull is back”? Let me rein in my emotions first: correlation really can be incredibly misleading. More money doesn’t mean they’re going to buy right away—it could just be a shell getting swapped, off-market, waiting for the right moment and the market mood.

Recently, whenever there are big on-chain transfers or a move between exchange hot and cold wallets, the comment section starts yelling, “Smart money is here.” To be honest, I always treat it as gossip… Sometimes it’s rebalancing, sometimes it’s market making, and sometimes it’s simply internal moving around. Over on the NFT side, it’s even more obvious: when the floor price is pushed up, people say funds are flowing back, but once liquidity thins out and orders are pulled, the truth is exposed. Anyway, I’d rather watch order book depth and the rhythm of deposits and withdrawals, so I get pulled less by “causal narratives.”