I recently reviewed it again: I can’t hold spot, and with contracts I can end up getting liquidated. Put plainly, it’s not that my prediction is that bad; it’s that my position is too much like placing a bet. Now I give myself some plain human words: any trade—so long as the amount of money I’d lose is small enough that I can still sleep normally, that’s enough. The rest? Don’t let yourself get carried away. If I really want to rush in, it’s fine—do it in several rounds, with small amounts, test first. Add more when I earn. If I get it wrong, I pull out. Better to be slow than to crash.

Also, on-chain I’ve seen people talk about those big transfers—when an exchange’s hot and cold wallets move, they get labeled as “smart money.” I don’t believe this kind of interpretation that you can settle the whole thing just by taking a glance anymore… At most, I treat it as a reminder: volatility may be coming. Turn down the leverage first, and set your stop-loss at a position you can accept. Anyway, staying alive matters more than winning one round.