Just been looking at the lithium market and wow, the recovery has been wild. Spot prices basically doubled from December to late January — battery-grade lithium carbonate jumped from around 13k to 26k per ton. That's a 95 percent swing in just a couple months. Most of it seems driven by supply tightness in spodumene and some real supply disruptions from key producers, but there's definitely speculative money pushing it higher too.

What's interesting is the lithium price forecast for 2025 that everyone was talking about completely missed how tight things would get. EV demand stayed strong — global sales up 22 percent last year — and now you've got Zimbabwe banning raw mineral exports earlier than planned, Australian mines potentially restarting, and Chinese players scrambling to lock in long-term contracts. The structural deficit in upstream materials is real, not just paper numbers.

That said, this market feels fragile. Thin liquidity means one headline can swing prices hard. The consensus seems to be that lithium price forecasts need to account for way more volatility going forward. Current levels are profitable even for higher-cost producers, so supply should eventually respond, but the delays in project development mean relief won't come quickly. Watching to see if these prices hold or if we get another correction.