My biggest feeling from recent market observations: the macro "invisible hand" is actually quite straightforward. When interest rates rise, everyone is more willing to hold cash/short-term bonds to eat up certainty, risk appetite shrinks, and positions shift from "want to earn more" to "don't want to lose first." No matter how much narrative is discussed on-chain, in the end, it still has to align with real funding costs.

These days, funding rates are extremely volatile again, and the group chat is buzzing: is this a reversal signal or just more bubble squeezing? My somewhat cool opinion is that funding rates are just a thermometer of sentiment, not a steering wheel. What truly makes me add or reduce positions is seeing the cost of "borrowing to go long/short" start to steadily increase, or suddenly ease up—simply put, if the macro environment turns the tap, traders' courage will follow. Anyway, I now prefer to keep my positions smaller and wait until everyone finishes their act.