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Just caught the latest retail sales numbers and they're kind of interesting. January came in at a 0.2% decline, which honestly beat what most economists were calling for - they had penciled in a 0.4% drop. So it wasn't as bad as people feared, but still negative.
The auto sector dragged things down pretty hard. Car and parts dealers fell 0.9% last month after being slightly down in December. Strip out auto sales though and January basically flatlined, which was still better than the expected uptick of 0.1%.
Michael Pearce from Oxford Economics had a take on this that makes sense - he's saying the winter weather clearly played a role in that January weakness. But here's what caught my attention: gas prices were jumping because of the Iran situation, which is putting real pressure on consumer spending. That's a legit headwind. Though he noted the tax refund season was just kicking in, so that could offset some of it.
Some categories got hit harder than others. Department stores, health stores, gas stations, and clothing retailers all saw steep drops. But miscellaneous retailers and online sellers had solid growth, which tracks with where people are shifting their spending these days.
One bright spot: core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) actually rose 0.3% in the month. So there's some underlying strength there if you look past the headline noise.