Just caught that arabica and robusta both jumped on Monday - arabica up 1.37% and robusta posting a solid 4.08% gain, hitting 2-week highs. The shipping chaos through the Strait of Hormuz is really pushing freight costs up, which flows directly into what coffee importers and roasters pay. That's a key driver for coffee price today.

What's interesting is the mixed signals underneath. Brazil got decent rainfall last week in Minas Gerais, which eased some supply concerns, but the bigger picture is still bullish for producers. Conab is projecting Brazil's 2026 output climbing 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Vietnam's also ramping up exports - January shipments surged 38% y/y to 198,000 MT. That's a lot of supply coming into the market.

On the inventory side, ICE arabica stocks recovered to a 4.75-month high on Monday, and robusta also bounced back to a 2.75-month high in late January. More beans in warehouses usually weighs on coffee price today. Colombia's output is down though - production fell 34% y/y in January, which is supporting prices a bit. Overall, feels like we're in a tug-of-war between record production forecasts and logistical headwinds.