Been thinking about Warren Buffett's recent portfolio moves and honestly, there's some interesting stuff worth digging into here. Two of his picks look solid right now, but there's one that's raising some flags.

Let's start with American Express. So Berkshire's position in AXP has grown to over 47 billion, making it the second-largest holding after Apple. Yeah, the stock pulled back nearly 20% from its December highs because everyone's worried about consumer debt crushing households. The Fed data is pretty stark—18.8 trillion in total household debt with delinquencies hitting near-decade highs at 4.8%. That should hurt a lender, right?

Here's the thing though. Amex isn't your typical credit card outfit. They're serving a lot of wealthy customers, and luxury spending from their cardholders actually grew 15% year-over-year in Q4. That's almost double the 8% growth in overall billed business. When Warren Buffett positions himself in a company like this, he's banking on the fact that affluent borrowers hold up better during tough times. This pullback might be your entry point.

Then there's Constellation Brands. Corona and Modelo owner hasn't exactly been a home run since Berkshire jumped in late 2024. Shares are down, and yeah, Gallup's showing alcohol consumption in the US hit a multidecade low at 54%. But here's what people are missing: this is a cyclical business. Demand gets soft when people are cutting costs and worrying about health, but it bounces back. Meanwhile, management is cleaning house, divesting lower-margin wine brands. The new CEO Nicholas Fink could bring fresh energy. Warren Buffett's patience with this one might pay off.

Now, the one to actually avoid? DaVita. This is where Warren Buffett's long-term bet hasn't worked out. Kidney dialysis business looked good back in 2011 when Berkshire first bought in, but everything's deteriorated. Revenue is up just 5% year-over-year through the first three quarters of 2025, yet net income dropped 17%. That's a red flag. The whole healthcare sector is getting squeezed—reimbursement pressure, cost inflation, you name it. Tellingly, Berkshire started quietly scaling out of this position early last year. The message is pretty clear.

So if you're thinking about following Warren Buffett's playbook, American Express and Constellation look worth watching. But DaVita? That's the reminder that even legendary investors sometimes hold positions that just don't work out. The fact that they're exiting tells you something.