So I called the interest rates forecast for 2025 and honestly, I was pretty close. Everyone expected maybe one measly 25-basis-point cut from the Fed, and I said nah, they'll be way more aggressive. Turned out the Fed cut three times for 75 basis points total. Not exactly a perfect hit, but definitely vindicated on the direction.

Now here's where it gets interesting for 2026. The consensus is predicting another 50 basis points of cuts - basically two meetings where they lower rates. But I think that's sleeping on what's actually happening in the economy right now.

Look, we got 100 basis points of cuts in 2024, then 75 in 2025. The job market is showing real weakness, economic uncertainty is creeping in, and Jerome Powell's stepping down as Fed Chair. All of this points to a more dovish Fed than people realize. Here's what I'm actually expecting:

First - and this one's bold - I think we're getting four rate cuts in 2026, not two. The market's only pricing in an 11% chance of that happening, which feels way too low given the conditions.

Second, the 10-year Treasury yield is going to move sharply lower. Right now it's sitting around 4.19%, which is actually higher than mid-2024 even though rates have been cut. I'm calling for it to break below 3.5% by year-end - we haven't seen that since early 2023. That matters huge for dividend stocks, REITs, and corporate borrowing costs.

Third prediction on mortgage rates - this one's controversial. Fannie Mae thinks we'll see 5.9% by end of year, and the Mortgage Bankers Association is basically saying rates stay around 6.4%. I think they're both wrong. I'm predicting we finally get real mortgage relief and see 30-year rates drop to 5.5% by December. Started the year around 6.2%, so that's meaningful movement.

Look, I don't have a crystal ball, but the conditions for a much lower-rate environment in 2026 are definitely there. The interest rates forecast that most experts are giving feels conservative to me, especially when you look at what's actually pressuring the economy. Worth keeping an eye on how this plays out over the next few months.