Gold Stays Stable Despite Geopolitical Tensions, Strong movement Delayed

Gold went up from the $4,764–$4,773 range, making up for some of Monday's losses, helped by the US Dollar pulling back from its recent peak.

But it couldn't go much higher than $4,815. This was due to rising oil prices fueling inflation worries and pushing US Treasury yields up, which isn't good for assets like gold that don't pay interest.

Tensions between the US and Iran are still high, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. New conflicts and blockades there have lowered hopes for a quick peace deal. This overall cautious mood in the market tends to support the dollar.

But at the same time, expectations of the Fed cutting rates—with CME Group FedWatch pointing to about a 40% chance by year-end—are limiting how much stronger the USD can get, which offers some support to gold.

Since there isn't much major US economic data coming out soon, gold's price movements will mostly depend on geopolitical events and bond yields.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold is still in an uptrend, consistently setting higher lows from the $4,300 zone, though it seems to be losing some momentum.

The price is stuck below the $4,800–$4,880 resistance, having been rejected there several times. Support is found around $4,700–$4,720, with stronger demand between $4,600–$4,620. Should it drop below $4,278, the uptrend would no longer be valid.

If the price stays above $4,700 and manages to climb back above the $4,800–$4,880 range, it could then head towards $5,000.

If it falls below the trendline, a pullback toward $4,600 is likely. A clear break below that level would signal a bearish shift in its structure, potentially sending it toward $4,300.

In summary, the uptrend is still present but appears to be losing strength. Therefore, it might be better to consider buying when prices are near support levels rather than resistance.

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